I am an expert on polls. Here’s why they can’t tell you if Biden beats Trump again — or vice versa

By David Lauter, Los Angeles Times

WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden has had a tough couple of weeks in polls, deepening the anxiety among his fellow Democrats about his age, political liabilities and the prospect that he could lose a rematch with former President Donald Trump.

Biden’s allies pooh-pooh the grim talk. Presidents Clinton and Obama both had miserable polls in the fall of their third years and bounced back to win reelection, they note. Polls a year out from an election have little if any ability to predict the outcome, they add.

On both counts, they’re right — up to a point.